Riot Platforms Faces Risk of Sliding to Single-Digit Share Price in 2026 Amid Bitcoin Bear Outlook
Riot Platforms (RIOT) is at elevated downside risk for 2026 driven by a likely Bitcoin bear cycle and the company’s high operational leverage to BTC price moves. Analyst David Zanoni highlights technical bearish signals for both Bitcoin and RIOT — including a head-and-shoulders pattern on RIOT and weak RSI/MACD readings — which suggest further downside toward single-digit share prices. Riot’s fully loaded cost to mine, including depreciation, is cited near $89,000 per BTC, creating potential for material losses if BTC trades below that level through 2026. Near-term capital expenditures (Corsicana facility expansion) and a premium valuation increase the firm’s vulnerability during a BTC downturn. The analyst discloses a beneficial short position in RIOT and recommends selling RIOT until cycle lows are confirmed. Key keywords: Riot Platforms, RIOT, Bitcoin (BTC), mining cost, Corsicana, bear market, technical indicators.
Bearish
The article presents both fundamental and technical reasons pointing to downside for Riot Platforms tied directly to a bearish outlook for Bitcoin. Fundamental pressure: Riot’s reported all-in mining cost (~$89k/BTC including depreciation) implies significant losses if BTC remains below that level, and near-term CapEx for Corsicana raises fixed costs and operational leverage. Technical pressure: the analyst cites bearish chart patterns (head & shoulders) and weak momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) for RIOT and BTC. The combination historically amplifies share declines for miners during BTC bear cycles (e.g., 2018 and 2022 crypto winters when miners’ equities sharply underperformed as BTC fell and costs exceeded realized BTC prices). For traders: short-to-medium term, expect elevated volatility and downside for RIOT correlated with BTC price action; miners often lead equity drawdowns in crypto sell-offs. If BTC continues lower, RIOT can drop to single-digit levels as margin pressure forces selling and capital raises. Long-term, if BTC recovers and Corsicana adds low-cost hash rate, Riot could regain upside — but that recovery depends on BTC cycle timing and miner cost reductions. Trade implications: consider reducing exposure or short strategies for RIOT until BTC establishes support and RIOT shows improving fundamentals/technicals; monitor BTC price vs. Riot’s breakeven cost, hash-rate growth, and CapEx announcements.