Ripple to unlock 1 billion XRP from escrow on March 1 — traders to watch re-escrow amount and technicals

Published: 2026-02-28 08:01:40 |

Ripple will release 1 billion XRP from its escrow on March 1, 2026, as part of its monthly supply-management program that began in 2017. The escrow originally held 55 billion XRP and allows up to 1 billion XRP to be released on the first day of each month to support liquidity needs (including On-Demand Liquidity) and institutional partnerships. February’s unlock saw 1 billion XRP released (≈$1.63bn); Ripple re-escrowed roughly 700 million XRP and left a net ~300 million XRP added to circulation, leaving about 33.895 billion XRP in escrow. If March follows the same pattern, escrow could fall to ~33.595 billion XRP. Market participants note the headline “1 billion” figure overstates actual supply change because Ripple frequently re-locks a large share of each monthly release. Price context: at publication XRP traded near $1.31, down ~7% in 24 hours and ~8.6% on the week, below the 50-day SMA ($1.69) and 200-day SMA ($2.26). The 14-day RSI was ~39.9, indicating weakening momentum but not deeply oversold. Traders should monitor the actual re-escrow amount (how much of the 1 billion is re-locked), ETF flows and short-term technicals (50-day SMA, RSI) because the net increase in circulating supply can create short-term selling pressure and affect liquidity. The earlier summary (Jan/Feb) also noted historical behavior: Ripple normally re-locks about 60%–80% of monthly releases, leaving ~200–300 million XRP net per month; and the SEC settlement in August 2025 (including a $125m penalty) cleared the way for U.S. spot XRP ETFs, which have seen substantial inflows — another key supply/demand factor traders should track alongside escrow releases.

Neutral

The news is neutral for XRP price on balance. The scheduled 1 billion XRP unlock is a recurring, expected event and by itself is unlikely to create a lasting directional move because Ripple historically re-escrows a large portion (typically 60%–80%), leaving only ~200–300 million XRP net added to circulation. Short-term impact could be bearish if Ripple re-escrows less than usual or if large amounts hit the market immediately, increasing selling pressure and weighing on liquidity — traders should watch the announced re-escrow amount and immediate ETF flows. Technicals (price below 50- and 200-day SMAs, RSI near 40) point to weakened momentum, which could amplify any negative reaction to a larger net unlock. Conversely, steady ETF inflows or high demand for On-Demand Liquidity could absorb supply and offset selling, limiting downside. Therefore the likely effect is neutral-to-moderately bearish in the short term if net supply rises more than typical, but not decisively bullish absent sustained demand shocks.