Ripple CEO Sees 90% Chance CLARITY Act Passes by April 2026, Clearing Path for Stablecoin Rules and XRP Clarity
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said there is about a 90% probability the CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) will become law by April 2026, citing renewed White House and congressional engagement, bipartisan momentum after the House passed the bill in 2025, and ongoing Senate negotiations. Key outstanding issues center on stablecoin provisions—particularly whether issuers may offer yield-style features—where banking groups and crypto firms disagree. Stakeholders aim to resolve remaining disputes by a March 1, 2026 deadline. Supporters say the bill would assign securities-like tokens to the SEC and commodity-like assets to the CFTC, reducing legal uncertainty that has constrained institutional participation. Garlinghouse argued federal legislation is needed even after favorable court rulings for Ripple, and noted Ripple has invested roughly $3 billion since 2023 in custody and treasury infrastructure to prepare for institutional flows. Prediction markets price passage somewhat lower than his estimate, so timing remains uncertain. For traders: passage could remove a major regulatory overhang, likely prompting rotation into utility-focused large caps such as XRP and boosting institutional stablecoin usage; conversely, delays or restrictive stablecoin rules would sustain regulatory uncertainty and limit institutional capital deployment. Watch legislative progress, stablecoin provisions, and the March 1 negotiating timeline for near-term market catalysts.
Bullish
A federal CLARITY Act that clarifies jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC and sets clear stablecoin rules would materially reduce regulatory uncertainty for Ripple and the broader market. For XRP specifically, codifying that certain tokens fall under CFTC-like treatment or are not securities would be a decisive legal milestone following Ripple’s favorable court outcomes. In the short term, positive legislative progress or signals could trigger a rapid rotation into XRP and other utility-focused large caps as institutional treasuries and custodians deploy capital. Increased clarity on stablecoins would also support higher institutional stablecoin usage and on-ramping. Conversely, delays or restrictive stablecoin provisions would preserve the regulatory overhang, limiting institutional flows and likely muting price appreciation. Given Garlinghouse’s 90% probability assessment and ongoing high-level negotiations, the balance of near-term risk/reward for XRP leans bullish but remains conditional on actual passage and the final stablecoin rules—making legislative milestones the primary catalysts to monitor.