Ripple SEC Settlement by Aug 15 Faces Uncertain Outcome

A social media post suggests a 70–90% chance that Ripple will settle with the SEC by August 15 when both parties file a joint status report. However, that deadline is procedural and not a true settlement trigger. While Ripple has signaled its intent to withdraw its cross-appeal—and CEO Brad Garlinghouse expects the SEC to follow suit—the final settlement hinges on internal SEC steps, including an enforcement recommendation and a five-member commission vote, likely taking one to two months. If both appeals are formally withdrawn, the lawsuit could close quickly, removing a major regulatory overhang and potentially boosting XRP trading volumes. Conversely, any delay in SEC internal approval could push resolution into 2026 and extend market uncertainty. Traders should treat the 70–90% probability as optimistic but speculative, and closely monitor official court filings and SEC processes after mid-August.