Robinhood and Crypto.com Expand Prediction Markets as CFTC-Backed Volume Rises
Robinhood and Crypto.com are pushing into prediction markets, where users trade event contracts tied to real-world outcomes. The Wall Street Journal reports both platforms are discussing an expansion of their prediction markets footprint.
Robinhood launched its Prediction Markets Hub in 2025 via a partnership with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange. In the hub’s launch year, 11–12 billion contracts were traded, helping prediction markets revenues begin to rival Robinhood’s crypto trading segment in some quarters. Robinhood also partnered with Susquehanna to build a CFTC-licensed futures and derivatives exchange that went live in early 2026.
Crypto.com entered competition in February 2026 with OG, a CFTC-regulated prediction markets platform.
Regulation is the key risk. Multiple U.S. states have challenged sports-related event contracts, arguing they resemble unlicensed gambling. Both Robinhood and Crypto.com have faced legal complications as a result. In December 2025, Robinhood, Coinbase, and others formed the Coalition for Prediction Markets to advocate for consistent federal oversight and avoid a patchwork of state-by-state rules.
For traders, prediction markets embedded in a retail brokerage could drive engagement beyond elections into broader macro and sports themes. However, the uncertainty is concentrated at the state level, meaning adverse rulings could force product changes or market exits. Coalition progress over the next 12–18 months may determine whether growth continues or hits a structural barrier.
Neutral
This is likely neutral for crypto markets overall. The move by major retail platforms into prediction markets can improve adoption of “prediction markets” products and could create incremental demand for on-platform trading activity. However, the article’s own emphasis is on U.S. state-level legal uncertainty—especially around sports-related event contracts. That kind of regulatory headline tends to generate short-term caution (or volatility in related public sentiment around exchange-like products) but has no direct, immediate impact on core crypto assets.
In the short term, traders may watch for risk-off reactions to adverse rulings, since product restrictions could affect revenues tied to prediction markets. In the long term, the key variable is whether the Coalition for Prediction Markets succeeds in driving more consistent federal oversight. If it does, platforms could scale prediction markets more smoothly, supporting broader fintech engagement among retail users. If it fails, state-level fragmentation could cap growth and limit any spillover into the broader crypto trading ecosystem.
Compared with past cycles where regulatory clarity (or uncertainty) around new financial rails mattered most, this looks like a “policy-driven” catalyst rather than a crypto-native demand shock.