Robinhood Expands US-Style Prediction Markets to UK and EU

Robinhood is set to expand its successful US-based prediction markets to the UK and EU, leveraging its Prediction Markets Hub that allows crypto traders to buy and sell event contracts on real-world outcomes, from interest rate decisions and elections to sports results. In the US, these prediction markets are treated as futures and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), with contracts executed via CFTC-licensed partner Kalshi and settled in US dollars. CEO Vlad Tenev reported over 4 billion event contracts traded to date, with more than half of the volume occurring in Q3. Robinhood is now discussing classification of its prediction markets with the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and engaging EU regulators to ensure compliance, determining whether the products should fall under derivatives rules or gambling laws. This expansion addresses growing demand among crypto traders for regulated event trading, a trend driven by decentralized platforms like Polymarket on Polygon, which processed billions in volume using smart contracts during the 2024 US election cycle. By offering a regulated, user-friendly alternative, Robinhood’s prediction markets aim to boost trading volumes and diversify offerings for crypto traders across Europe.