Robinhood, Susquehanna Buy 90% of MIAXdx (ex-LedgerX) to Enter CFTC-Regulated Prediction Markets
Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group agreed to acquire a 90% stake in MIAXdx (formerly LedgerX), a CFTC-regulated exchange, clearinghouse and swap execution facility that was previously affiliated with FTX. MIAX (which acquired LedgerX in 2023) will retain a 10% stake. Robinhood will be the controlling partner and Susquehanna will act as an initial liquidity provider; other market makers are expected to join. The deal follows Robinhood’s rollout of futures, derivatives and prediction-market options and comes as US prediction markets expand ahead of major elections. The acquisition gives Robinhood a regulated pathway to operate a futures/derivatives exchange and clearinghouse focused on prediction markets, positioning it to compete with Kalshi and Polymarket. Markets reacted positively: Robinhood’s Nasdaq shares jumped intraday (reports show roughly 8% in the latest update). Operations are expected to ramp toward 2026. Key implications for traders include accelerated product rollout under a CFTC-compliant venue, increased institutional liquidity from Susquehanna, and heightened competition in election and event-driven betting markets. Primary keywords: Robinhood, prediction markets, LedgerX, MIAXdx; secondary keywords: CFTC-regulated exchange, futures and derivatives, market competition, Kalshi, Polymarket.
Bullish
The acquisition is bullish for the traded assets and products tied to Robinhood’s offering (not a specific crypto token) because it creates a regulated, CFTC-compliant venue for futures, derivatives and prediction markets. Short-term positive effects: the announcement drove an immediate share-price spike for Robinhood, reflecting expected revenue and product expansion. For traders in prediction-market instruments and event-driven derivatives, increased institutional liquidity from Susquehanna should tighten spreads and raise tradable volumes, improving execution and market depth. Long-term effects: owning a designated contract market and clearinghouse reduces regulatory uncertainty for Robinhood’s new products and accelerates product development and adoption, which can expand market participation and derivatives liquidity over time. Competitive pressure on incumbents (Kalshi, Polymarket) could spur innovation and marketing, drawing more retail and institutional flows into regulated prediction markets. Risks that temper the bullish view include execution delays (operations slated toward 2026), potential regulatory hurdles during implementation, and concentration risk if market-making is initially limited. Overall, expected price and liquidity impacts for Robinhood-linked tradable products and prediction-market instruments are positive, supporting a bullish classification.