Robinhood CEO predicts ‘prediction market supercycle’, names Polymarket an early leader

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev says prediction markets are entering a long-term growth phase he calls a “prediction market supercycle,” naming on-chain platforms such as Polymarket as early leaders. Tenev predicts adoption and volumes could expand dramatically — potentially reaching trillions of contracts annually — as traders, institutions and exchanges use blockchain rails and on-chain settlement to price real-world events. Supporting developments include Kalshi’s $185 million funding round, large investments and data partnerships from firms like Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Kalshi’s tie-up with CNN, and Polymarket’s integrations and MetaMask partnership. Research cited shows Polymarket achieving high forecast accuracy in some time frames. New product launches aim to expand capacity and lower costs: PancakeSwap and YZi Labs announced Probable, a zero-fee prediction market on BNB Chain using UMA’s Optimistic Oracle for on-chain settlement. Reports say Robinhood drives significant Kalshi volume and plans to roll out customizable sports parlays using Kalshi technology in early 2026. Market reaction on social media was broadly positive. For crypto traders: this signals rising institutional capital, improving oracle and on-chain settlement infrastructure, and potential increases in liquidity and event-driven trading opportunities — developments that could create new hedging and speculative instruments tied to real-world outcomes and crypto-price forecasts.