Robinhood Q4 Miss: Crypto Revenue Falls 38% Despite Record Notional Volume

Robinhood reported Q4 net revenue of $1.28B, below analyst expectations of $1.34B, and shares fell in after‑hours trading. Crypto-related revenue dropped 38% year‑on‑year to $221M, which the company attributed to a market slowdown beginning October 2025 that reduced retail crypto activity. Despite weaker crypto revenue, Robinhood recorded a quarterly high in notional crypto volume, which rose 3% sequentially to $82.4B, suggesting larger or institutional flows even as retail participation softened. Quarterly net income declined 34% to $605M while EPS beat estimates at $0.66 (vs. $0.63 expected). Full-year 2025 results showed record net revenue of $4.5B (up 52%) and annual net income of $1.9B (up 35%). Equity and options activity grew: equities notional +10% to $710B and options contracts +8% to 659M. “Other” transaction-based revenues — including prediction markets and futures — surged 375% year‑on‑year to $147M, surpassing equity trading revenue for the first time. Robinhood also advanced its crypto infrastructure, launching a public testnet for Robinhood Chain (an Ethereum layer‑2 on Arbitrum) targeting tokenized real‑world assets, 24/7 trading, tighter wallet integration and real‑time settlement, with mainnet planned later in the year. Key takeaways for traders: expect continued volatility in crypto‑exposed stocks as retail crypto activity contracts; monitor Robinhood’s forward guidance and crypto market sentiment for short‑term share moves; watch on‑chain developments and product rollouts (Robinhood Chain) as potential medium‑ to long‑term drivers of tokenization flows and revenue diversification.