Robinhood Q4: Crypto Revenue Falls 38% as Options & Prediction Markets Cushion the Miss

Robinhood reported Q4 net revenue of about $1.28B, missing Street estimates (~$1.32–$1.35B) and prompting a roughly 7–8% drop in after‑hours trading. Crypto trading revenue plunged 38% year‑on‑year to ~$221M, cutting crypto’s share of total revenue toward ~10%. Nominal crypto trading volume across Robinhood and Bitstamp rose modestly quarter‑on‑quarter to a record $82.4B, but growth lagged stocks and options. Options revenue (~$314M) also missed estimates despite record options volumes; management highlighted strong retail options flow and growth in prediction‑market and event contract activity, with non‑stock trading revenue (including prediction markets and futures) hitting a record $147M — the first time it exceeded stock trading revenue. Robinhood reiterated 2025 guidance for roughly $4.5B in net revenue and $1.9B in net income. Analysts say the revenue miss is painful for a richly valued stock, though some (e.g., Autonomous Research) keep Buy ratings citing diversification and a robust options franchise. Market context: Bitcoin around $66.7k, Ethereum near $1.98k and Solana showing elevated volatility, signaling tighter liquidity and risk‑off sentiment across high‑beta crypto assets. Key takeaways for traders: weaker crypto revenue may pressure HOOD and reflect muted retail crypto activity; record options and prediction‑market growth diversify revenue but may not offset near‑term crypto weakness. Primary keywords: Robinhood, crypto revenue, Q4 earnings, options, prediction markets.