Bernstein Lifts HOOD Target to $160 on Prediction Markets, Tokenized Equities
Robinhood stock jumped after Bernstein raised its 12-month HOOD price target to $160 (from $130) and kept an “Outperform” rating. HOOD traded around $100.49 during the session.
Bernstein’s thesis: Robinhood is shifting its revenue mix away from pure crypto spot trading toward prediction markets, tokenized equities, perpetual futures, and compute-linked contracts. The broker estimates these could expand into a fee pool worth $70B+ and projects prediction markets could become a bigger revenue line as early as Q2, with ~$150M prediction market revenue in Q2.
On the downside, crypto trading activity is pressured by weaker market volumes. Bernstein cut its 2026 crypto trading revenue estimate by 49%, calling the slowdown more “cyclical” than structural.
Operational updates: Robinhood’s Rothera exchange processed 3.5B+ contracts since late May, with World Cup markets at ~93% of volume. Bernstein also described Robinhood’s relationship with Kalshi as a “frenemy” (Robinhood distributes Kalshi, while Rothera runs event markets). Separately, Robinhood launched “Agentic Trading,” opening the platform to third-party AI agents for U.S. equity/option access at no cost.
Traders’ focus: whether prediction markets can offset weaker crypto activity as HOOD heads into its July 29 Q2 earnings date (Street: EPS $0.55, revenue $1.27B).
Bullish
This is bullish for crypto-linked sentiment mainly via the broader tokenization/RWA narrative rather than a direct catalyst for a specific coin. Bernstein’s updated HOOD target reinforces that Robinhood can scale prediction markets and tokenized-equity style products, which could diversify demand away from purely cyclical crypto trading volumes. In the short term, the stock move and the market’s focus on prediction markets may support risk appetite for tokenization-related themes. In the long term, continued progress in on-platform infrastructure (e.g., Rothera volumes and tokenization framing) strengthens the probability of sustained growth in on-chain finance and RWA adoption, which traders may interpret as a supportive backdrop for related crypto ecosystems. The key offset is that Bernstein still expects crypto trading revenue pressure, but the “prediction markets can offset weakness” angle limits downside and keeps the overall tone constructive for traders watching tokenization flows tied to crypto market structure.