Russia and Belarus Shift 98.8% of Trade to National Currencies, Undermining the U.S. Dollar
Russia and Belarus have nearly completed a currency transition, conducting 98.8% of bilateral trade in their own national currencies rather than the U.S. dollar. This de-dollarization move intensifies Moscow’s economic pivot toward Asia, strengthens the ruble and Belarusian rubel, and diminishes Western financial influence. Energy exports, particularly oil and gas payments, are increasingly settled in rubles, yuan and euros. The shift follows sanctions imposed on Russia and reflects broader global trends as nations seek alternatives to the dollar for greater monetary sovereignty and reduced exposure to U.S. sanctions. Traders should monitor rising volatility in major FX pairs, potential ruble appreciation, and flows into non-dollar assets.
Bullish
The near-complete shift away from the U.S. dollar signals weakening dollar dominance and accelerates demand for alternative currencies and assets. History shows that major moves toward de-dollarization boost volatility in FX markets and prompt capital flows into non-dollar stores of value, including emerging-market currencies and commodities. For crypto traders, reduced reliance on the dollar may enhance the appeal of digital assets as a hedge, driving short-term price spikes and supporting longer-term adoption as a reserve diversification tool.