Russia crypto bill advances; P2P to be phased out from 2027
The Russia crypto bill has advanced in the State Duma, with first reading passing 327-340 deputies (RBC). The draft law, “On Digital Currency and Digital Rights,” would overhaul Russia’s “digital financial assets” rules and tightly control access to crypto.
Key trader impacts from the Russia crypto bill:
- Licensed intermediary route only: From July 1, 2026, citizens and businesses could acquire cryptocurrencies only via authorized exchanges/brokers/custodians. Trading on organized exchanges would be limited to coins meeting high thresholds (market cap, volume, and operational history).
- Domestic payments banned, FX settlement allowed: Crypto cannot be used as a domestic payment method, but it is permitted for foreign trade settlements.
- Custody and withdrawal limits: A “digital depository” framework would manage holdings. Withdrawals would be restricted to licensed foreign institutions, and transfers to personal wallets are excluded. The central bank can set withdrawal limits.
- Investor segmentation: “Qualified” vs “non-qualified” investors. Non-qualified investors face testing requirements and potential annual purchase caps.
- Lending restriction: Crypto lending without licensed intermediaries would be banned for Russian residents, including cross-border cases.
- Most immediate liquidity risk—P2P: Transactions without intermediaries are set to be banned from July 1, 2027. While P2P may remain “formally legal” until then, payment-blocking/blacklist mechanisms are expected to start earlier in 2026, likely tightening P2P liquidity.
Next steps: two more State Duma readings, then Federation Council approval within 14 days, and presidential signature within another 14 days. If approved, rules take effect July 1, 2026.
Bearish
This Russia crypto bill is broadly restrictive: it routes retail crypto access through licensed intermediaries, limits which assets can trade on exchanges, caps withdrawals, and bans domestic payments. The most bearish near-term signal for liquidity is the planned phase-out of non-intermediated trading—P2P is effectively threatened by earlier 2026 payment-blocking/blacklisting even before the formal 2027 ban. That structure can reduce off-exchange volume and worsen bid/ask depth, especially for traders relying on P2P rails. While the legislation may create a more orderly, regulated market for approved assets, the transition frictions and shrinking liquidity channels are more likely to pressure overall market activity in the regulated coins/venues.