Chances say make Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by Apr 30, 2026 don drop because of strikes

Prediction markets dey price say ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine before April 30, 2026 likely no go happen. Di contract “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026” dey around 6% YES, e don drop as reports of renewed aerial attacks dey increase. Di latest update show tit-for-tat pattern: Russia carry out missile strikes, dem even claim say civilians suffer. Ukraine reportedly target Russian oil tankers and terminals to disrupt energy exports. Di conflict still high intensity for im fifth year, and no major territorial shift get emphasis. Key names wey dem mention include Presidents Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin. Traders suppose dey watch diplomatic messaging from both leaders and any change for NATO support or involvement, because those factors fit quickly reprice ceasefire odds. Together with earlier talk say US-moderated talks never produce full peace deal, di ongoing strikes dey push market toward NO for Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026. Di update also note say developments related to Kostyantynivka no clear affect anything. For crypto traders, dis na mainly geopolitics-driven probability repricing (no be direct crypto catalyst), but e still fit affect risk sentiment and cross-asset volatility around headlines.