Samson Mow: 2025 Was Bitcoin’s Bear Market; a Decade-Long Bull Run May Follow
Jan3 founder Samson Mow said 2025 should be viewed as a Bitcoin bear market and predicted a potential decade-long bull run starting after 2025. Mow’s view, posted on X, was echoed by on-chain analyst PlanC, who noted that surviving 2025 meant surviving the bear market and pointed out Bitcoin is on track for a red yearly candle—something Bitcoin has never had two years in a row. Bitcoin reached an all-time high near $125,100 in October but has since pulled back and was trading around $87,420 (down ~9% year-to-date and ~3.3% over 30 days at publication). Market sentiment slipped into “extreme fear” in December (Crypto Fear & Greed Index ~20). Analysts remain divided: some (Peter Brandt, Jurrien Timmer) warn of deeper declines into 2026 (targets near $60k–$65k), while others (Matt Hougan, Phong Le) expect an up year or resilient fundamentals in 2026. The piece highlights key price metrics, mixed analyst outlooks, low sentiment readings, and the contrast between short-term weakness and potential multi-year bullish thesis.
Neutral
The news mixes a bullish long-term thesis (Mow’s decade-long bull run) with clear short-term weakness: YTD and 30-day declines, sentiment at ’extreme fear’, and analysts forecasting further declines into 2026. For traders this is neutral overall because: (1) Short-term signals are bearish — falling price, low sentiment, and some analysts predicting $60k–$65k targets could spur short-term selling and volatility. (2) Medium-to-long-term thesis is bullish — prominent figures argue 2025 was the bear phase and historical halving cycles and on-chain metrics can support multi-year rallies, encouraging accumulation strategies. (3) Market is bifurcated — conflicting high-profile forecasts increase event risk and range-bound trading. Practical implications: expect elevated volatility and trading opportunities — short-term traders may favor risk management and consider short or hedged positions; swing and position traders could use declines to build size if they align with a long-term bullish thesis. Similar past cycles (post-2018 bear market into 2019–2021 rally) show how calendar-year lows and negative sentiment can precede extended bull runs, but timing is uncertain — thus impact is neutral until a clearer directional breakout or macro/flow catalyst appears.