Quantum threat for Bitcoin don overhype: only 1,716,000 BTC dey for risk
On-chain analyst James Check talk say di risk for Bitcoin (BTC) quantum attack narrow pass di widely quoted 6.9M BTC wey dem dey call "exposed" public keys. For him report "Selling Satoshi’s Stack," e argue say di believable sell-side target na mainly 1.716M BTC from early Satoshi-era P2PK outputs; oda buckets include ~214,000 BTC for Taproot addresses and ~4.996M BTC for reused addresses (wey often link to exchanges/custodians).
For BTC price impact, Check assume worst case: even if dem crack and sell 1.716M BTC, market fit absorb am like normal cycle flows. Using "revived supply" logic, BTC historically dey absorb about 10,000–30,000 BTC per day for bull markets, so to sell all 1.716M BTC na roughly like 60–90 days of typical inflow.
E also mention BIP-360 "hourglass" mitigation wey limit P2PK spending to one per block. With ~38,000 P2PK outputs, e go take ~264 days—near post-quantum upgrade timeline. Overall, Check framing for BTC quantum threat show say any potential sell pressure likely temporary rather than market-fatal, wey fit reduce tail-risk fear among traders.
Neutral
Di latest framing don reduce di tail-risk story about one BTC quantum attack. Because Check narrow di realistic high-risk sell target to 1.716M BTC (no be 6.9M BTC), traders fit price in smaller worst-case downside and less “end-of-days” fear. Di argument say BTC fit absorb di impact over ~60–90 days, plus di BIP-360 “hourglass” pacing (~264 days), show say any forced liquidation most likely go stretched instead of immediate.
Still, dis no be complete bullish catalyst: if market people overreact to quantum headlines, short-term volatility fit rise. Long term, di main takeway na to monitor protocol-level mitigations (e.g., BIP-360-style constraints) and real sell-side wallet exposure not headline numbers, make expectations for BTC trading remain grounded.