Saxo Bank Strategist: US–Israel Military Escalation Could Push Gold to Record Highs
Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, warned that the recent US–Israel military escalation against Iran represents a worrying intensification that will likely drive investor demand into precious metals and energy. He said the size of the move is uncertain but, given last week’s momentum, he would not be surprised if gold climbed to a new all-time high. The comment highlights increased safe-haven flows into gold and related energy markets amid geopolitical risk, and serves as a market signal for traders to monitor bullion, oil, and volatility instruments closely. Main keywords: gold, Saxo Bank, Ole Hansen, military escalation, safe-haven.
Bullish
Geopolitical escalation (US–Israel actions toward Iran) traditionally fuels safe-haven demand. Ole Hansen’s comments specifically point to increased flows into gold and energy. Historically, episodes of conflict or heightened tension (e.g., 2022 Russia–Ukraine outbreak, Middle East flare-ups) produced rapid inflows into gold, driving prices higher and increasing volatility across crypto and risk assets. For crypto markets: in the short term, heightened geopolitical risk often leads to risk-off positioning — equities and speculative assets (including many cryptocurrencies) can face downward pressure while safe-haven assets such as gold strengthen. Traders may see increased correlation breakdowns and higher implied volatility; BTC and other large-cap crypto could initially drop as capital reallocates or liquidity dries up, then recover if macro liquidity or risk sentiment normalizes. In the medium-to-long term, persistent conflict that pressures energy markets and central bank policy could sustain inflation worries, which can support continued demand for inflation hedges like gold and, to a lesser extent, Bitcoin as an alternative store of value. Overall, expect an immediate bullish impact on gold and energy, transient bearish pressure or volatility for risk-on crypto assets, and potential mixed/neutral longer-term effects depending on conflict duration and macro responses.