SBI Securities Sells MicroStrategy Shares as Bitcoin Tests 50-Week SMA

Published: 2025-11-12 15:43:24 |

During Q2 2025, SBI Securities cut its MicroStrategy (MSTR) stake by 2,589 shares, reducing its holdings to 34,061 shares per Form 13F. This adjustment reflects a routine portfolio rebalance and not a direct company disclosure. MicroStrategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with over 641,000 BTC valued at roughly $46 billion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin briefly dipped below its 50-week simple moving average (SMA) last week and now hovers just above this key trend line. Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted that MicroStrategy’s stock fell below the same 50-week SMA in Q3 and has yet to reclaim it, a pattern that often precedes delayed movements in Bitcoin. Traders will watch the next weekly close and intraday tests of the 50-week SMA for confirmation of momentum. On the valuation front, MicroStrategy’s shares trade at a 0.99x mNAV discount to its implied Bitcoin net asset value, signaling a slight market-cap discount. Analyst Dr. Julian Hosp warns the ratio could fall further toward 0.2x unless CEO Michael Saylor sells BTC to support the share price. Ratios below 1x indicate a discount, while readings above signal a premium, though the company has not commented.

Bearish

SBI Securities’ sale of MicroStrategy shares and the stock’s trading below its implied Bitcoin NAV discount signal waning investor confidence, creating downward pressure. Bitcoin’s flirtation with its 50-week SMA—briefly dipping below—mirrors previous patterns where MicroStrategy breaches preceded delayed BTC declines. The combination of a routine stake reduction by a major institutional holder and technical weakness heightens the risk of further downside. Traders may interpret the 0.99x mNAV discount and an analyst projection toward 0.2x as signals of potential deepening discount and selling pressure. In the short term, markets could see increased volatility and selling, while long-term recovery hinges on Bitcoin reclaiming its key moving average and stabilizing MicroStrategy’s NAV ratio.