Bitcoin cycle bottom reached: Scotiabank sees BTC rebound, $100k by year-end
Scotiabank analyst Geoffrey Kendrick said the crypto market has likely hit the final bottom of the current cycle. He pegs Bitcoin’s (BTC) cycle low at about $59,000, down 53% from the $126,000 peak on Oct 6. Kendrick expects BTC to reach $100,000 by year-end and forecasts Ethereum (ETH) at $4,000.
He cites two main catalysts for a rebound. First, spot Bitcoin ETFs reportedly faced the sharpest selling pressure since launch. Since the second week of May, total ETF redemptions have exceeded $5.72B. Kendrick adds that ETF holders may have been liquidating positions to free capital for SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO). He expects the SpaceX IPO timing could ease this selling pressure.
Second, if a G7-related peace agreement involving Iran and Israel proves true, it could help prevent a surge in oil prices. Lower oil could curb rising U.S. Treasury yields, reducing macro headwinds for crypto.
To validate whether the bottom is firm, Kendrick plans to watch near-term signals: whether Strategy (MSTR) increases its Bitcoin holdings on Monday, and whether spot Bitcoin ETFs return to net inflows on Friday.
For traders, the key takeaway is that BTC downside momentum may be nearing exhaustion, with ETF flows and macro rates/oil acting as the main short-term triggers.
Bullish
The note is mildly bullish because it frames Bitcoin as having already bottomed, with a clear path to a higher price target ($100k by year-end) contingent on near-term catalysts. The two practical trading levers are (1) spot Bitcoin ETF flow stabilization—current heavy redemptions ($5.72B+ since early May) are treated as likely “event-driven” (funds potentially reallocated toward SpaceX IPO), and (2) macro relief—if oil and, by extension, Treasury yields cool, risk appetite typically improves for BTC.
Historically, similar “capitulation then flow reversal” setups often produce a tradable bounce, especially when large ETF outflow regimes begin to transition back to net inflows. However, this remains conditional: the forecast hinges on whether ETF net flows turn positive on Friday and whether corporate buyers (MSTR) keep adding. If ETF outflows persist or macro yields rise again, the “bottom” thesis can fail, turning the move into a range-bound or pullback scenario. Net: supportive for BTC/ETH sentiment short term, but traders should confirm with ETF flow data and rates/oil direction.