SEI on‑chain activity surges as price compresses; watch $0.1216 support and EMA reclaim for breakout
SEI Network has seen a sharp rise in on‑chain activity while spot price remains compressed under the EMA ribbon. DEX volumes topped $400 million over two weeks and perpetual futures (perp) volume surged roughly 19,527% over 90 days, with derivatives open interest reported above $150 million. Active addresses and daily transactions remain elevated (around 1.2 million) and SEI protocol TVL has stabilized at higher levels. Price action on the 4‑hour chart shows SEI trading near the lower bound of its range, capped by EMAs and vulnerable to a drop toward the weak low at $0.1216. Analysts say reclaiming the EMA ribbon with volume confirmation could target $0.18–$0.20 resistance; failing to hold $0.1216 risks further downside. For traders: the divergence between expanding DEX/perp flows and compressed spot suggests aggressive forward positioning rather than distribution. Key signals to monitor are EMA ribbon reclaim, perp funding and open interest dynamics, DEX flows, and the $0.1216 support for risk management and potential breakout entries toward $0.18–$0.20.
Bullish
The combined reports show strong on‑chain usage and a massive increase in perp volume and open interest while price remains compressed below the EMA ribbon. This divergence typically indicates accumulation or aggressive forward positioning by traders rather than distribution, which is constructive for future upside if momentum confirms. Short term, SEI is vulnerable to a breakdown under $0.1216 — which would be bearish and likely trigger stops — so risk is asymmetric: a hold and reclaim of the EMA ribbon with rising volume would likely push price toward the $0.18–$0.20 supply zone, reopening higher targets if momentum continues. Traders should therefore watch perp funding and open interest (to detect leverage changes), DEX flows (spot demand), and the EMA ribbon for confirmation. Position sizing should account for the clear support at $0.1216 and the possibility of a sharp move if that level fails.