Senate Shutdown Deal Boosts Bitcoin Rally Odds
The US Senate has agreed on a multi-part appropriation bill to end the record 40-day US government shutdown, securing enough support to clear a 60-vote cloture threshold. This development removes a key political uncertainty that dragged Bitcoin down 17% from a shutdown-era peak of $126,080 to $104,370 and weighed on the broader crypto market. Historical data shows Bitcoin rallied 266% after the 2019 shutdown resolution, suggesting potential for a similar rebound. Prediction markets on Polymarket assign a 54% chance of a Thursday resolution, while Kalshi sees an end by Friday. Market analysts expect the shutdown end to restore investor confidence, revive liquidity, and refocus traders on crypto fundamentals. Institutional inflows remained stable during the closure, supporting renewed upside potential for Bitcoin’s price.
Bullish
The Senate’s funding deal resolves a major political risk that depressed Bitcoin by 17%, removing a barrier to institutional inflows and market participation. Similar historical resolutions spurred a 266% Bitcoin rally, indicating strong recovery potential. With prediction markets signaling increasing odds of a timely shutdown end and analysts forecasting restored liquidity and investor confidence, trading activity is likely to pick up. This combination of reduced uncertainty and steady institutional demand underpins a bullish outlook for Bitcoin in both the short and long term.