September Fed Decision on Payrolls and Trump Pressure Hits Crypto
Crypto traders face a complex week as the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting hinges on the latest US nonfarm payroll report and ongoing pressure from former President Donald Trump. Economists forecast a modest rise in US job gains to 75,000, with an unemployment rate near 4.3%, which could either reinforce a Fed hold or trigger a rate cut if conditions worsen. Meanwhile, Trump continues to lobby for lower rates and fights a court ruling invalidating most IEEPA-based tariffs, adding uncertainty to US fiscal policy. On-chain metrics reveal stable Bitcoin reserves on major exchanges, a notable outflow from Kraken, and subdued ETF inflows for BTC versus stronger Ethereum demand. Bitcoin open interest remains elevated, signaling potential volatility, while Ethereum ETF and spot volumes hold up, reflecting higher investor confidence. Solana shows rising futures and spot volumes amid strategic reserve plans. Traders should monitor nonfarm data, Fed dot plot updates, and legal developments on tariffs, as these factors will likely drive crypto price movements in both the short and medium term.
Neutral
We categorize the impact as neutral because the interplay between the Fed’s decision and Trump’s pressure creates offsetting forces. A hold in interest rates may support risk assets, while renewed political uncertainty and mixed on-chain data (flat Bitcoin reserves, weak BTC ETF flows but strong Ethereum demand) suggest limited directional momentum. Historically, markets often pause before nonfarm payroll releases and Fed meetings, resulting in range-bound trading. Traders may see volatility spikes but lack a clear bullish or bearish catalyst until key data and legal rulings on tariffs are resolved.