Shiba Inu Bear Run May Persist Until September 2026
AMBCrypto reports that Shiba Inu’s bear run may continue for another 7 months, potentially lasting until September 2026. The article says the broader memecoin complex has struggled as Bitcoin momentum has been weak in recent days.
Price-wise, the top memecoins by market cap were mostly flat on the week: SHIB and PEPE were within 2% of their prices a week ago, Memecoin (M) gained about 10%, and DOGE fell roughly 3.8%. SHIB was down around 0.51% week-over-week.
To explain why bulls may struggle, two on-chain-style metrics are highlighted. First, “percent supply in profit” for SHIB sits at just 3.07%. The piece notes this is near bear-market profitability levels: October 2023 was 3.93% (a recent low), and February 2026 reached 2.86%—suggesting holders are not seeing strong profit conditions.
Second, the MVRV ratio and its deviation from the all-time mean are framed as an extreme bearish regime. During the 2022 bear market, MVRV stayed roughly 0.5 to 1 standard deviation below the mean from May 2022 to January 2023. If the current pattern repeats, the article argues Shiba Inu’s bear run could extend toward September 2026.
Even potential bullish catalysts—like a proposed T. Rowe Price ETF that could involve volatile assets such as Shiba Inu—may not be enough to reverse the trend. Net takeaway for traders: Shiba Inu’s bear run signals risk of continued downside/range-bound action, where rallies toward swing highs could behave more like sell opportunities than breakout trades.
Bearish
The article’s bearish stance is driven by two historical-analogy signals. First, SHIB’s percent supply in profit is at very low, bear-like levels (~3.07%), and earlier lows in this metric (2.86% in Feb 2026; 3.93% in Oct 2023) align with prolonged weak regimes. Second, the MVRV ratio’s deviation from its long-term mean is framed as an “extreme” bearish configuration similar to 2022, when the downturn lasted from May 2022 to January 2023. Using that template, the author projects the current Shiba Inu bear run could extend toward September 2026.
For traders, this matters because low profitability and depressed MVRV typically coincide with sellers dominating rallies. Even if short-term bounces occur (e.g., a +10% rebound scenario), the article argues the broader holder sentiment would remain bearish, making rallies more likely to fail near swing highs. In the short term, expect higher odds of range-bound or sell-the-rip behavior; in the long term, the market may require a structural improvement in on-chain profitability (and a normalization of MVRV) before the trend can flip.