Silver Near $76.50 as XAG/USD Eyes Third Straight Weekly Drop
XAG/USD climbed intraday toward $76.50 on Dec. 13, 2024, gaining about 1.2% but remained on track for a third consecutive weekly decline. Key technical levels: resistance at $76.50 (immediate), $77.80 and $79.00; support at $75.20 and $74.00. The 50-day MA sits near $77.15 and RSI reads 42. Fundamental drivers include firmer Fed rate expectations, a strong US dollar (DXY > 104), and higher real yields—factors that pressured precious metals this week. Industrial demand is mixed: strong photovoltaic (solar) growth vs. weaker electronics fabrication; ETFs added ~42 tonnes while COMEX managed-money positions turned net short. Supply-side constraints—2% drop in primary mine output, multi-year low COMEX/London inventories and an estimated 2024 market deficit of ~140 million ounces—provide structural support. The gold-silver ratio is ~84:1 (above 10-year average of 75:1), suggesting potential silver undervaluation. Seasonal trends historically favor a January recovery. Traders should watch a sustained break above $76.50 for bullish confirmation or a fall below $75.20 to extend downside. Primary keywords: silver price, XAG/USD, resistance, support, Fed policy. Secondary/semantic keywords included: US dollar strength, photovoltaic demand, gold-silver ratio, COMEX, ETFs.
Bearish
The article highlights short-term bearish pressure on silver driven by macro financial factors: firmer Fed rate expectations, a strong US dollar (DXY > 104) and rising real yields—classic headwinds for dollar-priced, non-yielding assets. Despite an intraday bounce to ~$76.50 and structural support from supply deficits and photovoltaic demand, technicals and positioning favor downside risk: RSI is neutral (42), the 50-day MA (~$77.15) is overhead, and managed-money positions on COMEX are at low net-long (turning net-short), which historically precedes further declines. ETF accumulation and supply constraints mitigate extreme weakness but are longer-term supports rather than immediate bullish triggers. In past episodes (e.g., periods of Fed hawkish surprises), silver has underperformed gold and extended weekly losses until dollar and yield pressures eased. Short-term traders should prioritize risk management: a daily close above $76.50–$77.15 would shift bias toward bullish reversal, while a breakdown under $75.20 likely extends the bearish trend. Over the medium to long term, structural deficits, solar demand growth and an elevated gold-silver ratio present upside potential once macro headwinds abate.