Silver Rally Fuels Macro Stress — Bitcoin Flash-Crash Risk Ahead of FOMC

Published: 2025-12-28 23:32:45 |

Silver’s surge toward a record near $79/oz and extreme RSI readings across commodities and legacy assets have heightened macro stress ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting. U.S. CPI for November remained elevated at 2.7% — above the Fed’s 2% target — reviving concerns that rate cuts may be delayed. Silver’s RSI approaching ~90 signals severe overbought conditions; similar momentum in gold and other commodities suggests a broader commodity-led risk-off dynamic. Traders warn this could trigger forced liquidations and rapid downside moves in Bitcoin (BTC) — a potential short-term "flash crash" — amid FOMC uncertainty and high leverage. Market makers and some participants, however, expect capital to rotate back into Bitcoin after commodities top out, creating scope for a rally following any correction. Key items for traders: monitor silver and gold momentum and RSI extremes, upcoming CPI/FOMC statements for policy guidance, leverage and liquidation levels in crypto, and intra-day order flow that could amplify flash-crash risk. Primary keywords: Bitcoin, silver, FOMC, inflation, flash crash. Secondary/semantic keywords: CPI, RSI, commodities, leverage, liquidations, capital rotation, macro stress.

Bearish

Short-term impact: Bearish for Bitcoin. The combination of an acute silver rally (RSI near 90), elevated CPI (2.7%), and FOMC policy uncertainty increases the probability of risk-off flows and forced liquidations. High leverage in crypto markets makes BTC vulnerable to sharp, rapid downside moves (flash crashes) if commodities trigger broad deleveraging. Traders should expect heightened volatility and downside risk in the near term, with rapid, liquidity-driven price moves more likely than sustained bullish continuation. Medium-to-long term: Neutral-to-bullish conditional. If commodities top and inflows rotate back into crypto, BTC could recover and rally after the correction; market-maker positioning and post-liquidation buying could amplify the rebound. Overall, immediate positioning should prioritize risk controls — reduced leverage, tighter stops, and monitoring of commodity RSIs, CPI prints, FOMC language, and liquidation levels — while allowing for a potential post-correction buying opportunity.