Macro Risks Stall Solana’s Onchain Rally Toward $250
Solana’s SOL token fell 6% after reaching $172 on Monday, mirroring a Nasdaq pullback triggered by weak forecasts and China’s rare earth export restrictions. Over the past two weeks, SOL underperformed the altcoin market by 7%. The decline came despite a surge in onchain activity and the launch of US spot Solana ETFs.
Network metrics show a 10% rise in active addresses and an 8% increase in transactions during the last 30 days. Solana also leads all blockchains in decentralized application (DApp) revenue, reinforcing its competitive edge. Total value locked (TVL) on Solana stands at $12 billion, outpacing BNB Chain’s $8 billion.
Institutional interest is growing. Since late October, Solana ETFs attracted $343 million in net inflows, while staking ETF funds added $286 million. However, corporate SOL sales, including Galaxy Digital’s 439,621 SOL disposal, have dampened momentum.
Solana’s recovery toward $250 depends on easing geopolitical tensions and renewed confidence in technology markets. Macro risks in AI and trade disputes remain key obstacles. While onchain metrics and ETF inflows support positive long-term prospects, traders should monitor broader market sentiment and sovereign risk factors for short-term price catalysts.
Neutral
Solana’s price action reflects a balance between strong fundamentals and external headwinds. Onchain activity metrics and significant spot ETF inflows point to sustained demand. However, the 6% pullback coinciding with a broader tech sell-off and corporate SOL disposals—such as Galaxy Digital’s sale of 439,621 SOL—mirror past altcoin downturns during Nasdaq corrections. Institutional interest supports medium-term bullish prospects, yet macro risks in AI, trade disputes, and geopolitical tensions limit immediate upside. Traders can expect SOL to consolidate until clear macro catalysts emerge. Therefore, the near-term impact is neutral, with potential for a bullish shift only if market sentiment and geopolitical factors improve.