Solana open interest drops below $2.1B as network participation falls
Solana (SOL) open interest has fallen below $2.1 billion, down from a recent ~$3 billion high, signalling reduced leverage and risk-taking in SOL futures. Network participation has also slipped to under 1.9 million (from ~3 million at the start of 2025), and Solana-based decentralized exchange activity appears to have largely cooled, with no clear recovery yet.
In perpetual futures, funding rates remain positive, suggesting some traders still expect upward momentum. On the technical side, analyst “Man of Bitcoin” says SOL’s price is squeezed between descending and ascending trend lines on the 4-hour chart. He flags $68.02 as a key level to preserve the bullish setup. If SOL breaks up, the first resistance is around $98, followed by upside targets at $110.54, $120.47, and $126.95. A breakdown below $68.02 could weaken the outlook.
Monthly structure is also alarming: Crypto Patel points out SOL has printed eight consecutive red monthly candles for the first time in its history, drawing comparisons to the 2021 bear-market leg. He watches a potential accumulation zone between $80 and $50. Coinglass data also shows heavy short positioning concentrated around $83–$87; a move into this band could trigger forced short closures. Near-term support is cited around $76.
Bearish
Open interest falling below $2.1B, together with declining network participation and weakening Solana DEX activity, points to cooling demand and reduced leverage—typically a bearish or risk-off setup. Even though funding rates are still positive (a potential offset), the broader momentum indicators are deteriorating.
On the chart, downside risk is highlighted by the importance of $68.02 as the “line in the sand.” A failure there can quickly unwind the squeeze and extend weakness. The monthly “eight consecutive red candles” is also an extreme regime-change signal; similar long bearish sequences in prior cycles often precede prolonged consolidation before a durable bottom is formed.
However, there is a counter-tilt for traders: heavy shorts clustered at $83–$87 could trigger short-covering rallies if price moves upward into that band. Near-term support at ~$76 and a potential larger accumulation zone ($80–$50) suggest limited downside may be priced in eventually. Net effect: bearish bias near term, with upside only likely if technical levels (especially $68.02 and then $83–$87) hold and short-covering is triggered.