Solana Eyes $218 Break Ahead of October ETF Decision

Published: 2025-09-26 13:56:21 |

Solana price has dipped below $200, trading around $196 after a 3.98% 24-hour drop and a 20.09% weekly decline. Analysts identify a critical resistance at $218, where roughly 29 million SOL (4.8% of supply) were previously acquired, creating a potential sell wall. Strong support lies between $165 and $180, underpinned by high on-chain volumes. Technical indicators show Solana cleared its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $200 and now sits in oversold RSI territory, suggesting a bounce if $194 holds. A rebound could target lighter resistance near $238–$250. Beyond technical factors, institutional adoption remains low at under 1% of Solana’s circulating supply, compared to 16% for Bitcoin and 7% for Ethereum. Approval of a Grayscale spot SOL ETF on October 10—and pending applications from Bitwise, VanEck and others through October 16—could drive significant inflows and shift market dynamics for SOL traders.

Neutral

While Solana’s drop below $200 and a looming sell wall at $218 indicate caution, oversold RSI readings and strong support around $165–$180 suggest a potential rebound. The market is awaiting a decisive catalyst: anticipated ETF approvals in October. Similar to Bitcoin’s price consolidation before its spot ETF verdict, traders may remain sidelined until regulatory clarity arrives. Short-term swings could see a bounce, but long-term direction hinges on institutional inflows driven by ETF outcomes.