Bitcoin Quantum Risk: Yakovenko Urges Post-Quantum Upgrade
At the All-In Summit 2025, Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko warned of a 50/50 chance of a Bitcoin quantum risk within five years. He highlighted that Shor’s algorithm on powerful quantum machines could crack Bitcoin’s ECDSA secp256k1 keys, expose private keys, and precipitate wallet drains. Yakovenko urged developers to plan migration to post-quantum cryptography by adopting quantum-resistant signature schemes before tech giants deploy quantum-safe stacks.
Despite downplaying the immediacy of the Bitcoin quantum risk, Blockstream’s Adam Back and Bitcoin Core’s Peter Todd emphasize that a hard fork for quantum-resistant signatures would be technically straightforward. However, legacy addresses, holding 25–30% of BTC supply with exposed public keys, remain especially vulnerable during transaction windows.
Implementing quantum-resistant upgrades requires broad consensus and a complex hard fork. As quantum computing advances rapidly, preparing a post-quantum migration strategy is critical to safeguard network security and protect billions in BTC from future quantum threats.
Bearish
News of a significant Bitcoin quantum risk and the need for a complex hard fork may heighten uncertainty among traders, leading to cautious sentiment and potential sell pressure. In the short term, concerns over the vulnerability of legacy addresses and the lack of immediate mitigation plans can trigger risk-off trading, weighing on BTC prices. Over the long term, a clear roadmap for post-quantum cryptography may restore confidence, but the technical and governance challenges suggest prolonged consolidation. Overall, the heightened uncertainty around Bitcoin’s network security is likely to drive a bearish market response until upgrade plans materialize.