Solana SOL drops 65%: analysts flag bearish signals, key supports at $30–$32
Solana (SOL) has fallen about 65% from its recent peak as trading volumes slide and technical indicators turn bearish. Analyst MooninPapa says the major support broken in November 2025 is unlikely to be reclaimed, and the current 16–17 week sideways range resembles a bearish flag.
Key technical levels highlighted for Solana price action: a rebound attempt at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near $68.76, but if that fails, the next Fibonacci target is the 0.5 zone around $45.60. The analyst also points to an unfilled fair value gap that could attract price down toward $21.93, while treating $30–$32 as the more realistic floor. He cites alignment with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and the Trend Break Out (TBO) indicator.
On-chain/volume signals add pressure: weekly SOL volume reportedly dropped from about $6B (May 2025) to about $2.3B recently. The on-balance volume (OBV) stays below its moving average, and TBO has held a clear short stance since December 2024. Relative strength index (RSI) reportedly hit a historically low 16.26, suggesting oversold conditions, but the bounce is framed as “relief” rather than a confirmed buy.
Traders are also watching Bitcoin (BTC) for spillover risk: renewed BTC weakness could accelerate SOL selling. MooninPapa states he is not holding SOL and would only reconsider entry on further weakness.
Bearish
The article frames the move in SOL as more than a normal dip: price action is bearish, volume is contracting, and multiple indicators (OBV below its average and TBO maintaining shorts since Dec 2024) suggest weak demand. The “bearish flag” interpretation and the analyst’s expectation that the broken November 2025 support is hard to reclaim keep downside scenarios in play. The highlighted oversold RSI (16.26) can trigger short-term bounces, but the write-up stresses those may be relief rallies rather than trend reversals.
Historically, patterns like bearish flags followed by failed retests often lead to another leg down after liquidity dries up, while fair value gaps frequently act as “targets” later in the move. If BTC weakness coincides, correlation effects can accelerate SOL selling in the short term. Longer term, SOL’s recovery would likely require volume expansion plus reclaiming the key Fibonacci/structural levels; without that, the market may remain range-bound or drift lower, with $30–$32 acting as a near-term battleground before deeper retracements ($45.6, then potentially ~$21.9).