Solana (SOL) at $88: bearish signals point to $57
Solana (SOL) lost momentum after failing to hold the $90 support level. The article says SOL dropped to around $88.2 (down ~4.5%), with traders flagging higher downside risk.
Derivatives flows drove the move. CoinGlass data cited futures outflows rising to about $2.13B vs inflows around $2.02B, pushing netflow to roughly -$103M. Open interest fell ~2% to about $5B, while liquidations exceeded $8M, including ~$6M in long liquidations. The author also notes a “bearish flag” pattern: in the prior similar setup, SOL fell ~56% to about $67, and the next projection ranges down toward $40–$45.
Technical indicators aligned with weakness. TradingView-referenced “Future Grand Trend” suggests a bearish path with $57 as the most adverse case. ADX/DMI were described as nearing a bearish crossover, which would confirm trend weakness.
Counterpoint: spot ETFs may cushion selling pressure. The article claims SOL spot ETFs avoided net outflows in recent sessions (about $4.5M net inflows via Sosovalue). Spot netflow stayed negative at about -$35.5M, but at the lowest level in nearly two months, implying accumulation. Net effect: the article frames $85 as a possible near-term floor before any rebound toward ~$93—if spot demand holds.
Bearish
The article’s core message is bearish for SOL: price broke below the $90 support and fell to ~$88, while derivatives positioning deteriorated quickly. Futures netflow turned sharply negative (around -$103M), open interest slipped, and liquidations were dominated by longs (~$6M). This combination typically triggers further downside as forced selling and deleveraging can cascade.
It also cites a recurring bearish flag pattern and directional indicators (Future Grand Trend; ADX/DMI near a bearish crossover). Historically, when a prior pattern repeats and the confirmation signals (bearish crossover / trend weakness) align, markets often extend the move before stabilizing.
However, the ETF angle introduces a possible floor. Spot SOL ETFs reportedly saw small net inflows and avoided consistent selling, which could slow the bleeding and limit how far SOL falls. Still, spot netflow remained negative, and the derivatives damage is usually more immediate for volatility.
Net impact: short-term volatility risk stays high and downside targets ($85 first, then $57 in the worst case) remain relevant. Longer-term stabilization would likely require derivatives to stop bleeding (netflow improvements and OI stabilization) and spot demand to persist—without which the bearish scenario can play out.