Solana (SOL) flashes Buy signal amid heavy selloff, ETF outflows
Solana (SOL) is taking heavy losses as the broader crypto market weakens. The article notes SOL fell to around $60 earlier in the month (its lowest since end-2023) and is trading near $63, down about 33% on the month, with market cap below $40B.
Despite the bearish tape, multiple indicators point to a potential rebound in Solana. Analyst Ali Martinez says the TD Sequential indicator has flashed a buy signal, implying price could move toward $77. Solana’s RSI (daily) reportedly slid to ~15—its lowest ever—while RSI readings below 30 typically signal oversold conditions and a possible bounce.
Other traders are also leaning cautiously bullish. An X user (Henry) called the setup “absolutely bullish,” targeting a W-shaped recovery above $88 if bulls reclaim $79.9. However, they warn that losing the key support around $60 could be damaging.
Still, downside risks remain. Another X user (cyclop) expects a short-term drop to the $30–$40 zone (last seen around Oct 2023). Longer term, they project a potential run to $300 within 1–2 years.
Fund flow data adds pressure: spot SOL ETF flows have turned negative, with outflows exceeding inflows over the past few days. The article cites that issuers such as Bitwise, Fidelity, Grayscale, and Invesco may need to sell real SOL to back the shares. Separately, rising exchange inflows (reduced self-custody) can increase near-term selling pressure.
Overall, Solana’s technical “buy” signals conflict with bearish flow and support-level risk, setting up a high-volatility trading environment.
Neutral
The news is mixed for SOL. On one hand, Solana’s technical setup is “contrarian-friendly”: TD Sequential buy signal and an extremely oversold daily RSI (~15) often precede relief rallies after capitulation moves. This resembles past patterns where sharp drawdowns followed by oversold RSI recoveries triggered short-lived rebounds (until price proves the new support).
On the other hand, the article highlights bearish positioning and flows that can cap bounces. Spot SOL ETF outflows imply institutional demand is cooling; issuers selling underlying SOL to back shares can add incremental selling pressure. Also, weaker exchange/netflow dynamics (less self-custody) can increase near-term sell pressure.
For traders, the key short-term trigger is whether SOL holds the cited $60 support and how quickly it reacts around $63. If support breaks, the bearish scenarios ($30–$40) become more plausible and the bullish signals may fail quickly. If SOL reclaims the intermediate levels (around $79.9) and holds, the market could transition from oversold bounce into a trend reversal toward $77–$88.
Longer term (1–2 years), the article’s $300 outlook is dependent on broader market recovery and sustained demand, so today’s news mostly increases volatility rather than providing a one-direction catalyst.