Solana (SOL) Two Elliott-Wave Paths: $32 Drop vs ATH Above $62
Technical analysis posted on X by Elliott Wave analyst “More Crypto Online” suggests Solana (SOL) has two potential routes to new all-time highs. The current structure is described as corrective rather than impulsive, and the SOL/BTC chart remains in a downtrend, implying SOL is still “lagging” Bitcoin structurally.
Base case: the analyst warns a flush to around $32 could come first. Bitcoin topped in Oct 2025 and SOL peaked in Jan, so timing differs. The bounce is said to lack the impulse needed to confirm a full trend shift.
Key levels to watch:
- Bullish alternative: an all-time high scenario is possible only if SOL holds above the $62 wave-four support zone.
- Bearish trigger: a break below $71.90 would be the first clearer signal for a move toward the $62 area.
- Additional supports (local): $79–$82 to keep the optimistic wave count alive; a further move above $85.60 would be needed to make the next rally credible.
- Deeper target reference: in the more optimistic count, a target near $574 is cited via a 61.8% Fibonacci extension after recovery from $62.
Oversold signal: the weekly timeframe is described as deeply oversold. The analyst notes markets can stay oversold longer than expected, so price can whip between corrective consolidation and the next impulsive leg.
Bottom line for traders: SOL (and the SOL/BTC relative chart) is not giving clean confirmation yet. The next support hold or breakdown should decide which “road” SOL takes—toward $32 first, or toward ATH after reclaiming and holding above $62.
Neutral
The article is fundamentally a technical map, not a new catalyst. It frames SOL’s next move as uncertain: a corrective bounce may still be followed by another leg down toward ~$32, but an all-time-high path remains viable if SOL holds above the $62 wave-four support. Because neither scenario is confirmed, traders may see two-sided volatility rather than a clean directional bet.
In the short term, watching $71.90 (breakdown trigger) versus $79–$82 and $85.60 (support/confirmation for the bullish count) matters for timing entries/exits. This resembles historical altcoin behavior where “oversold” conditions can persist and price often oscillates between wave counts until a decisive support break.
In the long term, the piece highlights SOL/BTC still in a downtrend, implying that even if SOL rebounds, relative strength may lag until Bitcoin’s regime changes. If SOL eventually reclaims and holds $62, it could set up a broader impulse toward higher targets (e.g., ~$574). If support fails, the market risks extending the correction beyond what many traders expect.
Overall, because the signal is conditional (two roads, no confirmation) and the key levels are technical thresholds, the expected impact on market stability is neutral, with risk of sharp swings around these levels.