Solana nears critical $75 support as RSI oversold — short-term bounce possible
Solana (SOL) has fallen sharply over the past month and now trades near the $75–$85 support zone after declines of roughly 35–39% month-to-month and nearly 70% from its January 2025 highs. Price action shows a bearish structure: lower highs, rejections at moving-average resistance (50/100/200-day), and trading below key Bollinger mid-band levels. Momentum is deeply oversold — daily and weekly RSI readings sit near oversold territory — which increases the chance of a short-term technical relief bounce but does not confirm a trend reversal. Market participation is weakening: 24-hour spot volume remains elevated (around $3.7–$3.9bn) but has eased, derivatives volumes and futures open interest have fallen, funding rates are negative, and Solana ETF flows have seen outflows, signalling reduced retail and institutional exposure and leverage deleveraging that has likely accelerated long liquidations. Network concerns (validator count decline and debates about stake concentration and value capture) add an additional layer of caution for longer-term conviction. Key levels: immediate support sits around $75 (with a nearer-floor at $80–$85); a daily close below $75 would expose lower targets near $67 and an extreme case around $51. Upside resistance and sentiment-shift levels are roughly $95–$111 and $138; reclaiming the mid-band and moving averages with rising volume and positive funding will be required to reduce downside risk. For traders: the setup favors caution — look for short-term bounce opportunities around $75 with tight risk management, monitor spot/futures volume and open interest for conviction, and beware of heightened volatility from leverage liquidations and macro risk-off flows before positioning for a sustained rally.
Bearish
Both articles describe a clear bearish structure for SOL: sustained declines, trading below key moving averages, lower highs, and rejections at mid-band resistance. Momentum indicators are deeply oversold, which supports the possibility of a short-term relief bounce, but several leading indicators point to continued downside risk. Market participation metrics—falling futures open interest, lower derivatives volume, negative funding rates, ETF outflows and reduced spot volumes relative to prior peaks—indicate deleveraging and lower conviction among traders and institutions. Network-level concerns (validator declines, stake concentration debate) further raise medium-to-long-term uncertainty. Taken together, these factors increase the probability of continued pressure on SOL’s price until there is clear technical confirmation (reclaiming moving averages and Bollinger mid-band) accompanied by rising volume and positive funding. Short-term trading opportunities exist around the $75 area for quick bounces or tactical shorts, but systemic indicators favour a bearish outlook for price action until conviction returns.