Solana Faces $50 Downside Risk as DeFi TVL in SOL Hits Record
Solana (SOL) showed diverging on-chain and price signals on Feb. 12, 2026: technical analyst Altcoin Sherpa warned that SOL could fall toward $50 after price broke a long-standing horizontal support near ~$95 and moved well below the 200‑day EMA, with SOL trading around $77 and session losses exceeding 11%. The breakdown printed increased sell-volume and a long intraday wick, indicating strong selling pressure; the next support bands are in the high‑$70s and around $51. Conversely, on-chain data from DeFiLlama highlighted a new all-time high for total value locked (TVL) denominated in SOL — roughly 70–80 million SOL — signaling more SOL tokens are deposited into DeFi protocols versus prior cycles. The TVL metric is measured in SOL units (not USD), so the rise reflects increased token deposits or accounting changes at the protocol level rather than price alone. Key takeaways for traders: SOL’s technical structure favors further downside while DeFi usage and token lockups suggest stronger on-chain demand and utility. Watch support at high‑$70s and ~$51; a reclaim of the former $95 zone would be needed to shift structure bullish. Primary keywords: Solana, SOL price, DeFi TVL, support levels, 200‑day EMA.
Bearish
Price action shows a clear technical breakdown: SOL closed below a multi-month horizontal support near $95, moved beneath the 200‑day EMA, and saw rising volume on the sell-off — classic indicators of sustained downside pressure. The next meaningful supports are the high‑$70s band and roughly $51; failure to hold these could trigger deeper declines. Although on-chain metrics (SOL‑denominated DeFi TVL at ~70–80M SOL) point to increased token use and deposit activity — a bullish structural signal for long-term utility — this does not immediately negate the bearish price structure. Historically, similar cases (assets with growing TVL but weakening price structure) produced short-to-medium-term drawdowns as traders de-risked while on-chain activity matured (examples: past altcoin cycles in 2021–2023). For traders: short-term bias favors sellers — consider defensive sizing, tight stops, or short-leaning strategies if momentum continues. For swing traders and allocators, monitor whether major holders or protocol‑level inflows are responsible for TVL gains; sustained, distributed deposit growth could become a medium/long-term bullish catalyst if price finds and holds a new support base. Key actionable levels: resistance now near $95, supports at high‑$70s and ~$51.