S&P Global: July US CPI to Be Key Indicator Amid Tariff-Driven Inflation

Published: 2025-08-10 04:00:41 |

S&P Global forecasts that July’s US CPI will be the pivotal economic indicator next week as markets brace for the impact of recent tariff measures. Despite higher tariffs on Chinese imports from August 7 and threats of a 100% levy on semiconductors, US consumer price growth in Q2 remained below 3.0%. However, S&P Global’s US PMI readings—a leading CPI indicator—suggest inflation could rise in the second half of 2025. Traders will closely watch the US CPI report to determine if headline inflation accelerated in July, a crucial factor for the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance amid ongoing price volatility.

Neutral

This report previews a key macroeconomic event without delivering fresh data. Market reaction typically hinges on the actual CPI outcome rather than anticipatory commentary. Historical patterns show limited pre-data moves in crypto until the CPI print, after which unexpected inflation readings can trigger volatility. Therefore, this news itself has a neutral impact, pending the real July CPI figures.