SpaceX Stock Rallies 14% as Lockup Fears Ease, Argus Upgrades to Buy
SpaceX stock rallied 14.09% on Friday, reaching $131.06 as lockup fears faded. The move was driven by an analyst upgrade and a weaker U.S. jobs report that reduced expectations of another near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.
Argus upgraded Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) from Hold to Buy and kept a $160 price target. The analyst cited strong operating performance in SpaceX’s most recent quarter: $7.8B revenue (+92% y/y) and $3.5B adjusted EBITDA, both ahead of expectations. This supported the view that SpaceX can absorb elevated spending plans for AI computing, Starlink and launch systems.
Lockup dynamics also mattered. Around 911.5M insider/early-investor shares became eligible to sell after the first post-IPO lockup expiration, raising potential float from about 4.9% to 11.8%. However, heavy insider selling did not materialize. Traders also appeared to unwind short positions—short interest had risen before earnings and the unlock window—helping amplify the upside. SpaceX stock gained again on Friday after a 6.1% rise Thursday, reversing part of the selloff that followed its first quarterly results as a public company.
Meanwhile, July nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 (vs. an expected +86,000), giving tech and growth equities a tailwind as lower rates typically improve equity valuations—an effect that can spill over to crypto market risk appetite. ARK Invest also added exposure, buying 181,830 SpaceX shares after Wednesday’s decline.
Technically, SpaceX stock approached resistance near $131, with momentum positive (4-hour RSI ~59.9). The next upside test cited by the article is a move above $131 toward the subsequent retracement zone near $138.63.
Overall, SpaceX stock’s rally suggests near-term relief from unlock overhang and supportive macro conditions, though future lockup tranches could reintroduce supply risk.
Bullish
The news is bullish for markets because the anticipated overhang from SpaceX’s first post-IPO lockup expiration didn’t trigger the feared large insider sell-off, while an analyst upgrade (Argus to Buy) and softer U.S. jobs data improved the macro backdrop for growth equities.
For traders, this matters even in crypto because risk assets often trade together when rate-hike expectations cool. Similar unlock-and-upgrade setups in public markets have historically produced short-term relief rallies when supply fears fail to materialize, with momentum reinforced by short covering. That said, the article notes additional lockup tranches later on, which can reintroduce selling pressure and raise event-driven volatility.
Net effect: supportive near-term sentiment (bullish), but with a watchlist for later unlock dates that could cap rallies or trigger pullbacks.