U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs Add $1.1B in Three Days, Led by BlackRock’s IBIT
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a strong three-day inflow of about $1.1 billion, the largest three-day gain since mid-January. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) dominated the inflows with roughly $652 million (over half), while Grayscale’s GBTC posted its largest single-day inflow since converting to an ETF. Other major funds—Bitwise, Fidelity (FBTC), VanEck and ARK/21Shares—also saw inflows. Total Bitcoin holdings across U.S. spot ETFs rose to about 1.29 million BTC, putting combined assets under management less than 10% below the October peak. The inflows coincided with the Coinbase Premium index turning positive after roughly 40 days, indicating renewed U.S. spot demand. At the same time, CME Bitcoin futures open interest fell to around 107,780 BTC, suggesting ETF flows are more likely outright long exposure rather than hedged basis trades. Bitcoin’s spot price has rallied toward the mid‑$60k range (roughly 45% below its October record), and renewed ETF demand could reinforce short‑term buying pressure and improve market liquidity for spot products. Traders should watch IBIT flows, Coinbase Premium, and CME open interest for signals about whether inflows represent fresh long exposure or rotation from futures/derivative positions.
Bullish
The inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs—led by BlackRock’s IBIT and including Grayscale’s GBTC—signal renewed institutional and retail demand for spot BTC. A three-day $1.1B accumulation, rising total ETF holdings (~1.29M BTC) and the Coinbase Premium turning positive all point to fresh buying pressure in the spot market. The decline in CME futures open interest (~107,780 BTC) suggests these flows are more likely direct long exposures rather than hedged basis trades, meaning ETFs are adding net spot demand instead of merely shifting positions within derivatives markets. Short-term, this can support further price gains and reduce downside volatility as ETF liquidity improves. Medium- to long-term, sustained inflows would continue to tighten available spot supply and be structurally bullish for BTC. Risks include headline-driven profit-taking, reversals in spot demand, or sudden increases in futures-based hedging that could offset spot purchases. Traders should monitor daily ETF flows, IBIT’s dominance, Coinbase Premium, and CME open interest to gauge whether inflows are persistent or temporary.