Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows Deepen as Holdings Fall — ETF Flows Drive Selling Pressure
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded four consecutive months of net outflows and have shed roughly 85,000–87,000 BTC since October–November 2025, with aggregate ETF assets falling from a peak near $170 billion in October 2025 to about $84.3 billion. Major funds saw notable declines: BlackRock’s IBIT dropped ~6% (806,000 to 759,000 BTC) and Fidelity’s FBTC fell ~12.6% (213,000 to 186,000 BTC). Between Feb. 12–19, seven trading sessions produced net outflows of 11,042 BTC, including a single-day reduction of 6,120 BTC on Feb. 12. Cumulative net inflows since July 2025 total only ~$5 billion, down sharply from prior highs. The 90-day rolling flow comparison shows recurring rotation of capital from Bitcoin ETFs into gold ETFs, with gold seeing large inflows through 2025 and early 2026. Analysts point to a ‘late-cycle restrictive digestion’ macro backdrop: high real yields, restrictive Fed policy, and attractive fixed-income returns raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like BTC, reducing ETF demand. Traders should note ETF flows are acting as a source of supply for spot markets; Bitcoin price declines have outpaced ETF balance reductions, suggesting weaker spot demand. Key metrics to watch: ETF BTC balances (~1.26M BTC currently), net flow daily/7-day averages, 90-day rolling inflows versus gold ETFs, and macro indicators (real yields, Treasury curve) that historically correlate with ETF inflows.
Bearish
Net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs over multiple months, the reduction of roughly 85k–87k BTC in ETF balances, and concentrated selling days (e.g., 6,120 BTC on Feb. 12) increase supply pressure on the spot market. ETF holdings have fallen but not as sharply as BTC price, indicating weak spot demand and that ETF flows are a persistent source of selling. The macro backdrop — high real yields and restrictive Fed policy — raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, historically correlating with reduced durable ETF inflows. Rotation into gold ETFs during periods of risk-off sentiment further diverts capital away from BTC. Short-term: expect continued downward pressure and higher volatility as flows and macro data are monitored; large redemptions or sustained outflows could exacerbate price declines. Long-term: if real yields fall or monetary policy eases, ETF inflows could resume and reverse the trend, but absent easing the environment remains unfavorable for renewed sustained allocation to spot Bitcoin ETFs. Comparable past episodes: 2019 tightening cycle saw BTC weaken ahead of equities; prior ETF-driven inflow surges occurred when real yields declined. Traders should monitor ETF daily/7-day flows, 90-day rolling inflows, and bond yields for signs of regime change.