Stablecoin payments could reach $1.5 quadrillion by 2035
Chainalysis projects stablecoin on-chain payments are shifting from crypto trading into mainstream economic rails. The report estimates that adjusted stablecoin “real economic volume” hit about $28T in 2025 (excluding bot-driven transfers, liquidity provisioning, and MEV-related flows).
Baseline growth implies stablecoin transaction volume could reach $719T annually by 2035 through organic adoption alone. Two structural forces may push stablecoin payments much higher: (1) generational wealth transfer of $80–100T into crypto-familiar Millennials and Gen Z, and (2) rising merchant adoption that could make stablecoins feel more like standard payment infrastructure than an alternative.
Including these dynamics, stablecoin volumes could reach as high as $1.5 quadrillion by 2035—exceeding today’s estimated $1 quadrillion in cross-border payments. The article also suggests this could support growth in on-chain lending, tokenized real-world assets, and stablecoin-linked treasury/liquidity management, while pressuring traditional finance to adapt.
Notable figures mentioned: James Godstime (author of the article), with the key dataset attributed to Chainalysis.
Bullish
这是对“稳定币支付基础设施”长期扩张的正面叙事：从 2025 年约 $28T 的真实经济量出发，到 2035 年基准 $719T，并在代际财富转移与商户采用加速下最高可能到 $1.5 quadrillion。对交易者而言，这通常意味着：稳定币充当链上结算与流动性通道的需求会更稳定、更可持续，可能提升市场参与度、带来更多现货/衍生品的资金周转，并间接改善整体链上流动性。
短期方面，新闻本身不直接改变 BTC/ETH 的即时现金流，但“稳定币流量预期上修”往往会提升风险偏好，尤其在市场情绪偏强时，可能带动与支付/借贷相关生态（如 DeFi、RWA）的关注度上升。
长期方面，若商户与金融机构确实将稳定币纳入支付与资金管理体系，链上价值传输的“摩擦成本”会进一步下降，市场行为更像历史上信用卡/移动支付渗透带来的阶段性加速。但也要注意：预测需要兑现现实采用；若监管或基础设施摩擦抑制扩张，增量资金可能延后。