Standard Chartered: BTC to $50K and ETH to $1,400 Before Rebound to $100K/$4K by End-2026
Standard Chartered’s digital-asset research team warns of near-term downside for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) amid weakening investor risk appetite and ETF outflows, but retains constructive end-2026 targets. The bank’s head of digital assets, Geoff Kendrick, lowered short-term projections: BTC may fall to about $50,000 and ETH to roughly $1,400. ETF AUM has declined materially from peak levels — Bitcoin ETF assets fell from around $165 billion to about $96 billion (roughly a 41% drop) and Ethereum ETF AUM from $23 billion to $13 billion (about 43% decline) — signalling institutional selling and larger unrealised losses that could prompt further withdrawals. Mixed US macro data (delayed CPI and recent jobs prints) and an anticipated Fed pause on rate changes until a leadership move add further near-term headwinds and may keep crypto inflows muted. Despite the downgrade, Standard Chartered keeps a bullish longer-term stance, reiterating year-end-2026 recovery targets of BTC $100,000 and ETH $4,000 and noting that broader institutional adoption and ETF structures should limit downside versus past cycles. For traders: expect potential tactical selling or reduced exposure on moves toward the $50K/$1,400 levels; consider accumulation only if aligned with the bank’s long-term view. Primary keywords: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETF outflows, investor risk appetite, CPI.
Bearish
The combined reports signal near-term downside pressure on BTC and ETH driven by sustained ETF outflows, institutional selling and mixed US macro data. Standard Chartered quantifies substantial AUM declines for both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, pointing to larger pools of unrealised losses that can accelerate selling if prices slip toward the bank’s downside targets (BTC ~$50K, ETH ~$1,400). Macro uncertainty (delayed CPI, jobs data) and a likely Fed pause reduce the chance of fresh inflows, sharpening short-term downside. That said, the bank’s maintained year-end-2026 targets (BTC $100K, ETH $4K) and emphasis on growing institutional participation imply a medium-to-long-term recovery narrative. For traders this translates to: short-term bearish price action and elevated volatility — consider tactical de-risking or trimming exposure on moves toward the specified floors — while long-term holders may view deep pullbacks as accumulation opportunities if they accept the bank’s recovery timeline.