StanChart: Bitcoin Sell-Off Nears End, Year-End Rally Expected
Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick identifies Bitcoin’s recent sell-off as the third major 30% correction since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched. He notes key indicators, such as MicroStrategy’s modified net asset value (mNAV), have reset to levels signaling seller exhaustion and market bottom formation. Kendrick anticipates a Bitcoin year-end rally, citing collapsed sentiment metrics and on-chain capitulation signals. Bitcoin’s price fell below $90,000, marking its deepest pullback since the ETF debut, then rebounded near $93,000. His base case forecasts a rally into year-end, echoing Bitfinex analysts who see slowing realized losses among short-term holders. Traders may view these signals as bullish for Bitcoin’s medium-term outlook.
Bullish
Standard Chartered’s identification of a third 30% Bitcoin correction since spot ETF launch, combined with metrics like MicroStrategy’s mNAV collapsing to parity and on-chain capitulation signals, mirrors previous market bottom formations. Historical patterns show that deep pullbacks followed by seller exhaustion often precede strong rebounds. Bitfinex analysts also note a slowdown in realized losses among short-term holders, reinforcing bottom signals. These converging factors support a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, suggesting short-term relief rallies could extend into a broader year-end uptrend. While macro headwinds remain, the alignment of sentiment lows and technical indicators points to a higher probability of price recovery.