Standard Chartered Sees 50bps Fed Cut in September
Standard Chartered has updated its forecast for the Fed rate cut in September 2025 to 50 basis points, up from a prior 25 bp outlook. The revision follows cooling U.S. labor market data—August nonfarm payrolls and rising unemployment—and dovish remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole. Markets now price a 90% chance of at least a 25 bp cut and a 10% probability of a 50 bp move. At a current policy rate of 4.25–4.50%, a 50 bp cut would mark the first major monetary policy easing of 2025, likely weakening the dollar, lowering borrowing costs, and boosting liquidity. Crypto traders should watch upcoming CPI, jobless claims, and Fed statements, as any data shifts could reshape Fed rate cut timing and spark fresh bullish momentum in digital assets and risk assets.
Bullish
A 50 bp Fed rate cut would inject liquidity, weaken the dollar, and lower borrowing costs. Historically, monetary easing correlates with higher risk appetite, benefiting crypto markets. In the short term, volatility may increase around economic data releases and Fed announcements. However, the overall trend for digital assets is bullish, as investors seek yield in risk assets when interest rates fall. Crypto traders can capitalize by increasing exposure to major tokens and altcoins sensitive to liquidity flows.