Standard Chartered Cuts 2025 Bitcoin Target to $100K, Says ETF Inflows, Not Halving, Drive Price
Standard Chartered has revised its Bitcoin outlook, reducing the 2025 price target from $200,000 to $100,000 and delaying a previous $500,000 long-term target from 2028 to 2030. Analysts Geoffrey Kendrick and Matthew Sigel point to two main developments: corporate treasury buying that supported much of 2024’s rally has largely paused, and spot-Bitcoin ETF inflows have slowed sharply. Quarterly ETF-related inflows are now roughly 50,000 BTC — the weakest level since U.S. ETF launches and well below combined corporate + ETF purchases of about 450,000 BTC per quarter in late 2024. ETF AUM growth also decelerated (about 15% in H1 2025 vs ~50% in H1 2024). Standard Chartered says ETF net purchases have dropped over 70% in recent months and that renewed institutional ETF buying is now the primary near-term driver for Bitcoin appreciation. The bank no longer treats the historical halving-cycle model as a reliable price engine in an ETF-dominant market. Despite the downgrade, Standard Chartered still views a breakout above the $126,000 all-time high as possible — likely in H1 2026 if ETF demand resumes. Traders should track spot-ETF flows, corporate treasury activity, and macro cues (especially Fed guidance) as the main near-term catalysts for BTC price moves.
Bearish
The downgrade and rationale point to reduced structural demand for Bitcoin in the near term, which is bearish for BTC price. Key drivers cited — a sharp drop in spot-ETF inflows and the pause in corporate treasury accumulation — directly remove the primary sources of sustained buy-side pressure that lifted BTC in 2024. Quarterly ETF inflows falling to ~50k BTC from ~450k BTC and a reported >70% decline in net ETF purchases signal materially weaker immediate demand. In the short term, this raises downside risk and increases volatility: without consistent ETF or corporate buying, prices may correct or trade sideways until a new institutional bid emerges. Macro factors (Fed policy, risk appetite) will amplify moves. In the medium to long term the view is more conditional: Standard Chartered still allows for a breakout above the $126k all-time high in H1 2026 if ETF demand resumes, so a renewed institutional buying wave could reverse the bearish bias. For traders, the actionable implications are to monitor ETF flows, on-chain/treasury accumulation metrics, and macro liquidity signals; risk management becomes paramount while net institutional demand is weak.