Standard Chartered: Bitcoin bottom in as crypto ‘winter is over’ amid $59K drop
Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick says the crypto market has likely hit its low after Bitcoin fell to nearly $59,000, describing it as crypto’s “most frigid” period. He argues “winter is over,” citing a 53% drawdown from Bitcoin’s October peak near $126,000.
Kendrick links a potential rebound to macro and market catalysts: a possible U.S.–Iran peace deal ahead of the G7 summit (which could ease oil price pressure) and SpaceX’s IPO. He also stresses confirmation signals traders should watch: continued declines in oil prices, renewed spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, and Strategy’s continued buying of BTC.
Market context shows tentative stabilization rather than a clean reversal. Bitcoin has since traded above $64,000 (about +5% on the week), while total crypto market value edged down to roughly $2.277T from $2.29T. Kendrick notes Bitcoin ETFs have seen about $5B in net outflows since mid-May, which may reflect investors raising cash for the SpaceX IPO. Oil moves remain key: WTI was cited down about 1.5% to $86/barrel.
On the liquidity side, the SpaceX IPO also appears to be pulling attention in crypto derivatives: pre-IPO SpaceX perpetuals on Hyperliquid (SPCX) reportedly reached ~$240M open interest and ~$220M 24-hour volume.
Neutral
Standard Chartered’s call is directionally constructive—Bitcoin’s drop to near $59K is framed as the “low” and “crypto winter is over.” That typically supports a more risk-on bias. However, the article also highlights conditions that are not yet fully aligned: spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded roughly $5B net outflows since mid-May, and the rebound thesis depends on further oil-price declines plus renewed ETF inflows and Strategy’s BTC buying.
This resembles past “bottom-call” cycles where price stabilization appears first (BTC back above $64K), but sustained rallies usually require confirmation from liquidity (ETF inflows/derivatives positioning) and macro tailwinds (lower oil and easing rates). SpaceX IPO effects may even create temporary liquidity churn—investors selling BTC ETF exposure to free cash—so short-term volatility could remain elevated.
Net: mildly bullish narrative, but tradeable confirmation is still pending, so the expected impact is best classified as neutral—watch ETF flows, oil, and Strategy/BTC buying for confirmation.