Standard Chartered Sees Bitcoin Year-End Rebound
Standard Chartered’s digital assets research head Geoffrey Kendrick says the recent Bitcoin sell-off has ended. In a Tuesday report, he notes that this marks the third major sell-off in the current bull cycle. Chart patterns and sell-off magnitude mirror previous dips. Critical market indicators, including the market-value-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) ratio, have reset to extreme levels. The mNAV ratio reached 1.0, implying the market values Bitcoin at net asset value with no premium. Kendrick calls this a “ground-zero” signal and believes the bottom is in. He forecasts a Bitcoin price rebound by year-end. Last month, he predicted Bitcoin might never drop below $100,000 if positive macro conditions hold, but prices fell from $105,000 to near $89,000. Liquidity remains thin after the October liquidation event, warns Nansen analyst Nicolai Sondergaard. Some analysts say failure to hold $95,000 to $100,000 could worsen market structure as on-chain pressure and ETF outflows rise. Kendrick also maintains a long-term target of $500,000 by 2028. This outlook could boost trader confidence, signaling a potential bullish phase for Bitcoin. Market participants should watch key support zones and liquidity metrics ahead of the expected rebound.
Bullish
The report by Standard Chartered signals a bullish turn. Geoffrey Kendrick identifies the recent sell-off as the third major correction in this bull cycle and sees key indicators bottomed out. The mNAV ratio hitting 1.0 suggests market valuation has reset to asset value, a classic reversal signal. Historically, similar sell-off bottoms have preceded strong price recoveries. For example, Bitcoin’s third-cycle corrections in 2013 and 2017 saw rebounds of 50%-100% within months. With liquidity constraints easing after the late-October liquidation and possible ETF inflows resuming, buying pressure could return. Traders may view the expected year-end rebound as a near-term entry opportunity. Over the long term, the forecast of $200,000 by year-end and $500,000 by 2028 aligns with previous cycle-based projections. However, failure to maintain key support at $95,000-$100,000 could stall recovery. Overall, the analysis supports a bullish outlook, likely boosting trader sentiment and encouraging position building ahead of the anticipated rebound.