Standard Chartered Sees USDe at $40B, ENA at $2 by 2028
Standard Chartered forecasts Ethena’s USDe supply could rise eightfold to $40 billion by the end of 2028, and sets a $2 price target for ENA. The outlook extends earlier estimates that USDe could outpace the wider stablecoin market as Ethena expands its yield sources beyond crypto basis trading into DeFi, institutional lending, real-world assets, and equity- and commodity-linked strategies. The bank also forecasts Bitcoin at $300,000 and Ether at $18,000 by 2028.
USDe is a synthetic dollar backed by crypto assets and short positions in perpetual futures, not bank-held cash. Users can stake it as sUSDe for variable yield, currently around 4.8%, mainly from staking rewards and derivatives funding rates. However, USDe supply remains near $5 billion, well below its roughly $14.8 billion peak after a Binance pricing incident triggered redemptions last October. Ethena continued to redeem USDe at $1.
ENA’s valuation case depends on renewed USDe growth and protocol revenue-funded buybacks. Under Ethena’s revised tokenomics, buybacks are intended to begin once USDe supply exceeds $7.5 billion, starting at 5% of revenue and rising to as much as 25% as supply grows. An earlier governance-approved plan allocated 95% of net revenue to buybacks after specified milestones; at $25 billion in USDe, Ethena estimated annual buybacks of $375 million under stated yield assumptions. At $40 billion in supply, Standard Chartered estimates buybacks could equal about 23% of ENA’s circulating market capitalisation at an unchanged token price, though price appreciation could reduce that rate. Monthly investor unlocks have ended after a one-time release on 5 October, but buybacks have not started and ENA incentives for USDe holders have stopped because supply is still below the threshold.
The forecasts may support ENA sentiment, but they are not guarantees. Traders should track USDe adoption, protocol yields, funding rates, buyback execution, and token supply. Risks include negative funding rates during prolonged bear markets, reliance on centralised exchanges for hedging, and regulatory uncertainty around yield-bearing stablecoins.
Bullish
The outlook is bullish for ENA because a potential eightfold expansion in USDe supply could lift protocol revenue and create meaningful demand through token buybacks. Standard Chartered’s $2 target is far above the levels cited in the earlier report, and the end of monthly investor unlocks removes a recurring source of potential selling pressure. These factors could attract traders seeking exposure to Ethena’s growth thesis.
In the short term, the forecast may act as a sentiment catalyst, but the price response is likely to depend on whether USDe supply begins moving towards the $7.5 billion buyback threshold. Supply remains around $5 billion, so buybacks have not begun; the stopped holder incentives and ENA’s recent price gains may also lead to profit-taking. In the longer term, sustained USDe adoption, resilient yields, and execution of buybacks could support ENA. Conversely, negative funding rates, exchange and hedging risks, regulatory scrutiny, or another sharp contraction in USDe could undermine the thesis. The bullish classification reflects the potential price direction, not certainty of the forecasts.