Bitcoin Short-Term Holders’ Profits Signal Potential Rally to $162K Before Possible Market Correction
Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs) are currently sitting on an average unrealized profit of 27%, according to new data from CryptoQuant. STHs, defined as addresses holding BTC for 1-3 months, have seen significant gains as Bitcoin reached new all-time highs, but have not yet initiated large-scale selling. Historic data shows that major distribution typically occurs when unrealized profits exceed 40% or when the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio surpasses 1.2. Currently, the MVRV ratio stands at 1.14, suggesting further upside potential for Bitcoin. Analysts forecast that if current trends and external conditions persist, the 40% profit threshold could be reached by June 11, 2025, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price to $162,000 before a market correction triggered by profit-taking. In the near term, Bitcoin may recover from recent pullbacks and aim for $115,000, with bullish sentiment likely to continue until substantial STH distribution begins. Traders should closely monitor STH profitability metrics, MVRV ratios, and macroeconomic or regulatory changes. A spike in profit-taking by STHs could lead to sharp corrections, so staying alert to these indicators is essential for market positioning. This evolving trend underscores the importance of tracking short-term holder behavior and key technical levels for effective BTC trading strategies.
Bullish
Bitcoin’s short-term holders are showing high unrealized profits while large-scale profit-taking has not yet occurred. With key technical indicators like the MVRV ratio below historic sell-off thresholds and STH’s unrealized profits still under 40%, analysts expect continued bullish momentum and further price growth, potentially up to $115,000–$162,000, before a major correction. This suggests a positive short- to mid-term outlook as long as STHs refrain from mass distribution. However, traders should remain cautious and monitor for any signs of distribution, as history indicates profit-taking at these levels could quickly lead to sharp pullbacks.