Stellar (XLM) faces renewed selling as derivatives turn bearish
Stellar (XLM) is under renewed selling pressure after a modest rebound from last week’s sharp market-wide correction. Derivatives positioning suggests the bounce may be corrective rather than the start of a sustained bullish reversal.
CoinGlass data shows XLM’s long-to-short ratio fell to 0.73, meaning short positions outweigh longs. Funding rates also turned negative on Monday and continued trending lower into Tuesday, a signal that traders are increasingly paying to hold short exposure.
On-chain/flow signals are mixed. CryptoQuant notes elevated activity across spot and futures with stronger retail participation. When activity overheats, short-term pullbacks often follow.
Price action remains fragile. XLM trades near $0.195, holding above the 50-day EMA ($0.182) and 100-day EMA ($0.179). However, resistance is forming near the 200-day EMA around $0.198. Momentum indicators are cooling: RSI is near 45 and MACD has slipped below the zero line.
Levels to watch: a daily close below ~$0.185 (and the 50-day EMA zone) could open further downside toward lower supports cited by the article. Traders may favor hedging or downside exposure while derivatives remain bearish for Stellar (XLM).
Bearish
The article’s core signal for Stellar (XLM) is bearish derivatives positioning. A long-to-short ratio below 1 (0.73) shows traders are net short. Negative, falling funding rates reinforce that shorts increasingly control marginal demand and may pressure spot as leverage unwinds.
Technicals align with this. XLM is still above the 50/100-day EMAs, but it faces resistance near the 200-day EMA (~0.198). Cooling momentum (RSI ~45 and MACD below zero) often precedes another leg down when buyers cannot reclaim the key moving average.
Historically, similar setups—negative funding plus long/short skew toward shorts—commonly lead to either (1) failed rebounds and retests of support in the short term, or (2) a choppy range where upside attempts get sold quickly. Long term, a sustained trend would require funding to normalize back toward non-negative territory and the price to hold above the 200-day EMA. Until then, the near-term risk/reward favors caution for Stellar (XLM), hence the bearish classification.