Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Underwater as STH MVRV Signals 22% Loss

On-chain data suggests Short-Term Bitcoin Holders (STH) are still underwater as Bitcoin’s recovery looks slow and spot-led. The STH realized price is near $87,000, while spot BTC remains below that level, meaning recent buyers are holding coins at a higher average cost. The key metric, STH MVRV, is at 0.78, implying roughly a 22% average unrealized loss. The article notes this has lasted about five months—long enough to turn “buy-the-dip” behavior from past bull cycles into a more cautious, mixed scenario. Derivatives stress has eased: exchange open interest has fallen from nearly $45B at cycle highs to around $21B after a leverage unwind. That shift suggests the current weakness is less driven by crowded futures positions and more dependent on real spot demand. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows appear to be stabilizing after the correction, with modest weekly inflows (about $167M), not a sign of heavy institutional selling. Even so, ETF holdings remain below peak levels, indicating big players are stepping back rather than aggressively accumulating. The article frames a momentum trigger: STH MVRV back above 1 would signal a return to net unrealized profits for Short-Term Bitcoin Holders and could improve the odds of a trend shift. Until then, controlled loss-taking seems more likely than a fast rebound.